Mr. Fantasy's advice: Let others take risk on big names

DRAFTING CLOSERS in baseball is a lot like picking kickers in football, with one critical exception: These bullpen specialists get snatched up much quicker for no apparent reason.

If you haven't learned your lesson by now, perhaps you never will. But let's look at the 2005 draft as an example as to why you're probably making a mistake if you take a closer anywhere in the first 12 rounds of your draft.

Last season's consensus Top 10 on draft day looked like this: 1, Mariano Rivera; 2, Keith Foulke; 3, Brad Lidge; 4, Jason Isringhausen; 5, Armando Benitez; 6, Joe Nathan; 7, Eric Gagne; 8, Frankie Rodriguez; 9, Francisco Cordero; 10, Danny Kolb.

And when all was said and done, this was the Top 10 in saves: 1, Chad Cordero; 2, tie, Bob Wickman and Rodriguez; 4, tie, Rivera, Nathan and Trevor Hoffman; 7, Lidge; 8, Danys Baez; 9, Todd Jones; 10, tie, Isringhausen and Derrick Turnbow.

Any questions?

The problem with accurately projecting save totals is there's no simple equation.

You'd think the teams that win the most also would have the most saves. But it's not true.

The Cardinals led the majors in wins in 2005, yet four teams had more saves. The Yankees were tied for third in wins, yet had no more saves than the Giants, Brewers and Rangers, none of whom had a winning record. And the Red Sox, who matched the Yankees' win total, were in the league's bottom third in saves.

In fact, a .500 team — the Nationals — produced the individual save leader.

OK, so maybe the conclusion is: A poor hitting team tends to win only close games, so it should have an elite-level closer. And being that the Nationals and Giants were the worst- and second-worst teams in scoring last year, yet both were in the top six in saves, perhaps we're on to something here.

Alas, the Pirates and Dodgers also had trouble pushing across runs in'05, yet neither had a fantasy-worthy closer.

So what's a fantasy owner to do? Let's start with something you shouldn't do: Waste a high pick on such guesswork. Chad Cordero, Baez, Jones and Turnbow weren't even drafted in some leagues last season.

I say: Grab a couple of guys late, then be prepared to make adjustments in-season, because that's what so many teams do.

It's hard work, sure, but that beats luck almost every time.

Of course, creating some good fortune for yourself helps as well, so here are some situations worth monitoring in spring training that could uncover a gem or two before your draft day:

Braves. They're hoping to find someone better than Chris Reitsma from within the ranks before opening day. Given the quality of the Atlanta farm system, don't be surprised if this dream closer emerges and has a quality season.

Cubs. No one seems convinced Ryan Dempster is going to keep his job, which makes him a nice sleeper. Until, of course, he gets demoted, at which point you'll want to pick up Bobby Howry, or whoever takes over.

Reds. Many are projecting the Reds to be a surprise team, but it won't happen unless David Weathers can close games. So if you're a Cincinnati believer, perhaps you should run with Weathers.

Orioles. They let B.J. Ryan go, in part, because they believe in their young relievers. But which one will earn the closer's role? The early favorite is Chris Ray, but stay tuned for further details.

Red Sox. A handful of quality closers, including the Dodgers' Eric Gagne and Giants' Armando Benitez, are coming off serious injuries. The biggest question mark in the group is Boston's Keith Foulke. Note that Mike Timlin is staying by in case things don't work out.

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