LUCAS' FOOTBALL WRAP-UP

The Pro Bowl provided a fitting epilogue to the just completed fantasy football season. In a 38-30 shootout won by the AFC, regular-season standouts Rich Gannon, Terrell Owens, Priest Holmes, Ahman Green, Curtis Martin and Marvin Harrison all reached paydirt for their respective squads.

On the other hand, Super Bowl XXXVI, played the week before, provided a fitting end to my football prognosticating for the year. My selection of the Patriots as the spread winners gave me a final record of 26-17-1.

I hear what you're saying. It could have been mostly beginner's luck, although I'm not really a beginner. Maybe I've just been living right and it carried over to my weekly picks. Whatever the reason, my method of handicapping NFL games will remain the same: A few parts hard data mixed with a dash of gut feeling.

So, before you decide to give any credence to my picks next year, feel free to compare those numbers with such well-known pundits as Chris Berman, Joe Theismann, Terry Bradshaw, et al.

And while you're comparing those numbers, you might want to check out some of the stats from the past season's fantasy football players. The 2001 season ushered in a whole new class of studs, especially at running back, and discarded a handful of fantasy players from years past.

Shaun Alexander, Anthony Thomas, Green and Holmes have instantly replaced stalwart backs like Eddie George, Fred Taylor, Terrell Davis and the two brothers Ricky: Watters and Williams.

And you might be able to add Edgerrin James to that last group, depending on how he comes back from a serious knee injury. He's a definite question mark.

At wideout, Cris Carter, Derrick Alexander and Eric Moulds took huge steps backward, whereas David Boston and Rod Smith moved into the elite Moss-Owens-Harrison group.

The top of the quarterback board looks pretty much the same, save for a couple exceptions.

Jeff Garcia showed that the 2000 season was no fluke, and he should be a Top 10 pick in most drafts next fall.

Steve McNair got a chance to air it out and was very productive the last half of the year. He could have played himself into the Top 20 in some 2002 drafts, although not in mine.

Anyway, without further adieu, here is my 2002 Top 20 list. You might think I have James rated too low, but until I see him move around again, I can't just insert him into the top five. There aren't any grandfather clauses in fantasy football. It's all about what you can do for me over the course of the next four months.

1. Marshall Faulk. At the top until he shows he can't do it anymore.
2. Shaun Alexander. Fifteen touchdowns last year, plenty more on the way.
3. Kurt Warner. Triggerman on league's most explosive and consistent offense.
4. Daunte Culpepper. Had a bad year and still finished near the top in quarterback stats.
5. Donovan McNabb. This will be the year he turns into a fantasy stud.
6. Ahman Green. Runs, catches and scores long touchdowns.
7. Jeff Garcia. System and Owens give him tools to be fantasy standout.
8. Peyton Manning. Not worried by picks. He's still one of top quarterbacks.
9. Terrell Owens. He's unguardable. Problem is, he may be uncoachable, too.
10. Priest Holmes. I doubted him early. He proved me wrong late.
11. Marvin Harrison. Touchdown and yardage machine.
12. Anthony Thomas. Vision, power, speed and run-oriented offense.
13. Edgerrin James. Depends on rehab. Could move several spots either way.
14. Randy Moss. Bad attitude. Bad team. Still a three-touchdown, 150-yard threat every game.
15. Brett Favre. Proved he can still wing it with anyone, if he has receivers.
16. Curtis Martin. A lot of wear on tires, but can still dart around.
17. Rod Smith. An absolute stud when healthy.
18. David Boston. Awesome combination of power and speed.
19. Corey Dillon. If Cincy looks improved, could vault up about five spots.
20. Torry Holt. With Isaac Bruce slowing, 2002 will be the breakout year for him.

With the ascension of Green, Alexander, Holmes and Garcia, I'm counting at least four different players in the Top 10 compared with how my league drafted last year.

And quality running backs, long thought to be the key to fantasy football championships, are in abundance. I didn't even include Stephen Davis, Duce Staley, George, Taylor, Williams or Mike Anderson, who should have the Broncos' job all to himself if Davis is purged in the offseason.

Something to consider when doing your 2002 draft strategizing.