You'd think determining which team will play the toughest schedule in
any given season would be a snap. And that explains why most
fantasy-football participants have allowed random know-it-alls to dupe
them over the years.
The fact is: Strength-of-schedule calculations aren't simple at all.
They take a lot of thought and effort. And there aren't a whole lot of
people out there willing to do the work.
Think about it: Why would last year's win-loss records have anything to do with this year's fantasy numbers? Yet almost all strength-of-schedule rankings you see are simply a listing of
cumulative records from the previous season.
Why? Because they're easy to calculate, and most fantasy-football "experts" don't like to get overly involved in Math.
Take the Minnesota Vikings, for example.
They will play teams that went a combined 141-115 last year. Only three teams will play a "tougher" schedule.
But what's that got to do with offensive and defensive ratings that are so critical to the fantasy game? Uh, nothing.
In fact, the Vikings will have a total of 10 games this season against
teams that - the way I see it - will have below-average defenses,
including two against the weakest defensive club in the league --
Detroit.
So in fantasy terms, the Vikings don't have a tough schedule at all.
After doing the calculations, it turns out they have the fourth-EASIEST
schedule, behind only the Bucs, Panthers and 49ers.
Do yourself a favor: If you're going to use strength of schedule in
your draft ratings this season -- I personally believe they can be a
good tie-breaker when you can't decide between two guys -- use MY
ratings, not theirs.
Here's how the numbers crunch for 2008:
EASIEST SCHEDULE TO RUN AGAINST:
- New England
- San Diego
- Buffalo
- Kansas City
- Denver
- N.Y. Jets
- Miami
- Oakland
- New Orleans
- Atlanta
- St. Louis
- San Francisco
- Tampa Bay
- Carolina
- Arizona
- Seattle
- Minnesota
- Baltimore
- Green Bay
- Washington
- Houston
- Tennessee
- Chicago
- Jacksonville
- Dallas
- Philadelphia
- N.Y. Giants
- Indianapolis
- Detroit
- Cleveland
- Pittsburgh
- Cincinnati
Conclusions:
- Late in the first round, you might encounter this dilemma: Willie
Parker or Reggie Bush? Tough one. But note the strength-of-schedule
numbers: Parker 31, Bush 9. All of a sudden, it's not such a tough
choice.
- If you had Larry Johnson last season, no doubt you've sworn never to
make that mistake again. I fully understand. But as a second back, his
fourth-easiest schedule to run against and the Chiefs' continued
reliance on him make LJ a wise selection.
- Ronnie Brown is being overlooked a bit this season because of last
year's injury and the presence of Ricky Williams. But it's quite
possible neither will be a factor in 2008. The Dolphins' rating against
run defenses (No. 7) suggests he could be a big-time surprise this year.
- Johnson and Brown surely are safer picks than Jamal Lewis and Rudi
Johnson, a pair of veterans who figure to have it rough against the
toughest (Johnson) and third-toughest (Lewis) schedules against the run.
- Keep an eye on the Broncos in training camp. Any of four guys could
be Mike Shanahan's designated star back this season. Once that man has
been identified, the Broncos' schedule (fifth-easiest against the run)
isn't about to stop him.
- Who's going to be the Lions' featured back this season? Actually, it doesn't matter. Only the Browns, Steelers and Bengals will have it
tougher to run against.
EASIEST SCHEDULE TO PASS AGAINST:
- Tampa Bay
- Carolina
- Washington
- Chicago
- Minnesota
- San Francisco
- Green Bay
- Philadelphia
- Indianapolis
- St. Louis
- Arizona
- Atlanta
- New Orleans
- Seattle
- Tennessee
- Detroit
- Dallas
- Jacksonville
- Oakland
- N.Y. Jets
- Miami
- Pittsburgh
- N.Y. Giants
- Denver
- Buffalo
- Baltimore
- New England
- Cleveland
- Kansas City
- Cincinnati
- Houston
- San Diego
Conclusions:
- Can Jake Delhomme lead you to a fantasy title this year? I say yes. First off, the team has made major upgrades offensively, drafting a potential star running back in Jonathan Stewart and snatching a quality receiver (D.J. Hackett) from Seattle. And this clinches it: Only the Buccaneers will face a softer collection of pass defenses.
- If you opt for Ben Roethlisberger or Carson Palmer as your starting quarterback, I strongly recommend quickly securing a backup who plays a much softer schedule. In fact, I won't be surprised if Matt Leinart and Jason Campbell wind up starting over the bigger-named guys by midseason.
- Here are two guys to avoid: Matt Schaub as a potential starter and Philip Rivers even as a backup. They'll face the two toughest schedules of them all.
- It appears a logjam exists after the top four wide receivers (Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Reggie Wayne and Steve Smith). Here's where strength of schedule serves as a nice tie-breaker. Give me Marques Colston ovre Andre Johnson and Braylon Edwards.
- The Chargers have LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates, so already there aren't a whole lot of balls for Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson. Now mix in talented younger Craig Davis and it becomes even tougher to recommend a San Diego wide receiver. The league's toughest schedule to pass against? That's strike three.
EASIEST SCHEDULE OVERALL:
-
Tampa Bay
- Carolina
- San Francisco
- Minnesota
- N.Y. Jets
- Buffalo
- New England
- Washington
- St. Louis
- Denver
- New Orleans
- Oakland
- Chicago
- Atlanta
- Miami
- Kansas City
- Arizona
- Green Bay
- Seattle
- San Diego
- Philadelphia
- Tennessee
- Indianapolis
- Dallas
- Jacksonville
- Baltimore
- Detroit
- Houston
- N.Y. Giants
- Pittsburgh
- Cleveland
- Cincinnati
Conclusions:
- What to do about Tampa Bay's top billing on this list? Probably the guys who benefit most are Joey Galloway and Matt Bryant. But here are two other things to watch: the club's competition for featured back in training camp and a potential sleeper (Ben Troupe?) that might emerge at tight end.
- You've already been warned about Carson Palmer and Rudi Johnson. Well, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson are no bargains, either, given the murderers' row of defenses staring at the Bengals. This might be a good year to avoid the Bengals all together.
- Even without Brett Favre, the Packers should have success passing the ball. Greg Jennings is lower than he should be on draft ratings, especially when you consider Green Bay's schedule is much tougher against the run than the pass.
- The NFC East is tough, but the Redskins also have the Cardinals, Rams, Browns, Lions, Bengals and 49ers on their schedule. Santana Moss can help you this season.
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