By Mr. Fantasy

Pretty much no matter where you look, the message is the same: Draft running backs early and often in fantasy football this year.

You won't get that message here.

The philosophy of using your first two picks on backs was born of a scarcity of fantasy-worthy talent at that position. When there were 15 quality backs available, it made sense to grab two before the supply quickly ran out.

But that's no longer the case. With more and more teams building their offense around a solid running game, there are at least 21 sure-thing backs available in the 2008 fantasy draft. Thus, you don't need to be in nearly as much of a hurry to grab a couple than in years past.

On the other hand, the difference between the top four quarterbacks (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Tony Romo) and the rest of the pack, and the two premier wide receivers (Randy Moss and Terrell Owens) and their counterparts, is such that if you pass on them for the sole purpose of drafting a running back, chances are you'll regret it when you subsequently sort among the mediocre depth at those positions down the line.

Here's what I believe your mindset should be at each of the first-round positions in a 10-team draft:

1. Brady was far and away the MVP of the fantasy game last year, and there's really no reason to believe he won't be again this year. He legitimately could and probably should be the first pick of most fantasy drafts.

The problem with taking Brady first is some leagues still believe watering down a quarterback's numbers is a good way to play the game (it isn't), so taking a quarterback over a running back isn't always the wisest thing to do.

So here's what I'm thinking: Go ahead and select LaDainian Tomlinson or Adrian Peterson over Brady, but nobody else.

My pick at No. 1: Tomlinson.

2. Employing the same philosophy, the logical choice here is Peterson. But perhaps you're asking: Why not Peterson ahead of Tomlinson at No. 1?

It's a legitimate question. The Vikings will run the ball more than the Chargers because Minnesota has far fewer options than San Diego. Peterson, who was brought along slowly as a rookie last year, should be full-speed-ahead from the get-go this year.

But San Diego is a vastly superior offensive team overall, which should give LT many, many more opportunities around the goal line. Defenses can't focus on Tomlinson, whereas Peterson will encounter eight defenders in the box all season. Whatever he gets, he's going to have to earn.

My pick at No. 2: Peterson.

3. It is at this point that at least not considering Brady would be a terrible mistake. Other than his tremendous scoring potential, the biggest reason not taking the Patriots star at No. 3 would be flat-out dumb is this: There is no obvious third-best running back.

So, who is No. 3 behind LT and Peterson? It could be Steven Jackson, but the Rams are a poor team that's in decline. It could be Joseph Addai, but the Colts have many options, including Dominic Rhodes now that he's returned to the club. And it could be Frank Gore, who is being cast as the next Marshall Faulk in Mike Martz's powerful offense.

Me? I think the third-best back in a close race is Marion Barber, who has demonstrated his fantasy clout in a somewhat limited role the last two years. The Cowboys no longer have sidekick Julius Jones, so that means Barber should be busier than ever.

But not busy enough to be the third pick in the draft.

My pick at No. 3: Brady.

4. OK, so who is it: Jackson, Addai, Gore or Barber?

First, let's examine the alternatives, starting with Manning. Nobody has been more a fantasy rock in recent years, and now that he has a target in front of him (Brady), it's going to be interesting to see how he responds to the challenge.

Then there's Moss and Owens. Both have first-rate quarterbacks. And both have coaches who understand the way to keep their star receivers happy is by constantly feeding them.

As I said about Brady: If Moss plays anywhere near as well as he did last year, he will outperform any of these backs. And there's really no reason to believe he won't.

My pick at No. 4: Moss.

5. By this point in many drafts, four running backs will have been selected. It takes guts to stop a run. But what's why you've got a brain. Brady simply cannot slip past this point.

Presuming he's gone, the question is: Would drafting a second quarterback or second receiver be wise this early in Round 1?

Numberswise, the answer is yes. But when you know most of the other owners in your league can't wait to draft backs, then you must consider this: It's possible Manning or Owens could slip to you in the second round. That certainly won't be the case with the quality of backs we're considering here.

I'd take Brady or Moss if either were available at this point. But if not ...

My pick at No. 5: Barber.

6. Every year I'm asked: What's the best draft position in Round 1? What's the worst?

I like 1, 2 and 3 this year because you're assured of one of the two elite backs or Brady. But I'd prefer to draft closer to the middle, because the wait from round to round is less. No. 6 is a nice spot because: a) Brady might slip to you; and b) Even if you're dead-set on drafting a back in Round 1, you're assured of one of the top six.

My least-favorite spot? I don't like 4, because if LT, Peterson and Brady are gone, you've got a very tough choice. In fact, you quite possibly could draft sixth or seventh and still get the same guy you picked fourth. But I like 8, 9 and 10 even less. There teams are assured two quality backs, but as I've mentioned earlier, that's not the advantage it was a few years ago.

At 6, I give Jackson a slight edge over Addai and Gore among the backs. But the more I look at Jackson, the more I don't like him.

My pick at No. 6: Manning.

7. As much as I like to be versatile at pretty much every point in a draft, there comes a scenario when you absolutely have to go in one direction. The way this draft has unfolded leaves you little choice what to do here.

With just three backs selected among the first six picks, you've lucked into getting the fourth-best at No. 7. Yeah, it's a guy who's a bit of a question mark, but there's something comforting about filling one of your running backs slots in the first round.

So, why Jackson over Addai and Gore? Just because the Rams' coach wants to run the ball, which isn't true with the Colts and 49ers.

My pick at No. 7: Jackson.

8. Owens would have been a great choice at No. 8 a year ago, but things have changed. You'd never have considered Brady or Moss in the top eight last year, so Owens' competition for a first-round spot this year is a lot stiffer.

With Addai and Gore still out there, you can't take Owens just yet. But be forewarned: With another pick coming up just four slots later, you better be prepared to take him in Round 2.

Addai or Gore? The Martz factor (and comparison to Faulk) makes Gore intriguing, but I'm left asking: What happened to the Lions running backs the last couple of years while the offensive genius was running the show there?

After all, Martz isn't exactly taking over the Colts' offense here. These are the 49ers, who have some serious issues.

My pick at No. 8: Addai.

9. One of the most important aspects of having a successful draft is an ability to adapt. When you found out you'd be drafting ninth, your mind started to wander. Might this be a good point to break from the anticipated run on backs to take a quarterback or receiver?

Maybe you've convinced yourself you can win a championship in your league by drafting a quarterback in the first round. You've studied this year's group and come to the obvious conclusion: Brady, Manning, Brees and Romo are all going to be studs. Grabbing one in Round 1 or 2 (because they'll all be gone before your pick in Round 3) makes a lot of sense.

Alas, it's time to backpedal. The quarterback selection made a lot of sense BEFORE you found out Brady and Manning would be gone earlier in Round 1, and BEFORE you had Gore slip to you at No. 9. Now there's no choice.

My pick at No. 9: Gore.

10. With Jeremy Shockey added to the mix, Robert Meacham on the verge of big things and Reggie Bush ready to bust out, I've gotta say: Brees is going to be a monster this year. He's someone you absolutely, positively have to consider in the latter half of Round 2.

But you can't do it this early.

With picks 10 and 11, your only question is: Do I draft one back or two? In this case, I say: Two.

I think Owens is the best available talent at this point, but then who's your choice of running back at No. 11? It's a very difficult decision, yet a critical one.

I like Bush, but he's no sure thing. Brian Westbrook is awfully good, but the Eagles play is a rough division. Willie Parker? Yeah, he's solid.

Unfortunately, being that my next pick (No. 29) is likely to produce a good (not great) back, I have to be right about the one I take here. And I'm not sold on any of them.

The solution? Take two. Double your chances of picking the right guy. And if they both pan out, you'll be doubly happy.

My pick at No. 10: Parker (with Westbrook on the turn).