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If you paid attention to my weekly schedule analysis last season, you're aware I said time after time: The Chiefs were playing one of the softest schedules in league history.
No, this had nothing to do with the win-loss records of the teams. Rather, it was a reference to the defensive strength of the teams the Chiefs were facing.
Week after week, the Chiefs played poor defensive teams, especially in the second half of the season. And a result: Several Chiefs made significant fantasy contributions.
The question is: Should we expect it to happen again?
Well, yes. Some teams will play relatively soft schedules this season.
But the Chiefs aren't one of them.
Take Jamaal Charles, for example. Based on his monster numbers last season, are we looking at the second coming of LaDainian Tomlinson, or perhaps just a Steven Jackson type who benefitted big-time from a once-in-a-career schedule?
My years of schedule-analysis experience tells me: Expect Charles to be more like Jackson - a very good (but not great) fantasy back moving forward.
Now consider this: The Chiefs' schedule this season is at the other end of the spectrum. The collection of run defenses they will run into ranks as the fourth-most difficult in the league. The pass defenses as a whole rate as the 10th-hardest.
Both those numbers impact Charles negatively.
My conclusion: I'd love Charles as my second back in 2011. But if you take him in the first round, you're making a mistake.
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